Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Let's Play Hide The Plane

While my title may be a little frivolous, make no mistake, the taking of the Malaysia Air Boeing 777 is deadly serious for any number of reasons. It is amazing that so little real evidence has shown up in, what must be, the largest civilian search in my lifetime. Much of the news is speculation. Given that, I'll speculate.

I don't believe it was an accident. If it were, I think something would have shown up in all this time. I think this was a carefully planned and exercised fundamentalist Jihadi operation. Look at what is known of the flight path. The plane was flown on a zig-zag course with varying altitudes, ending up below radar level. This alone belies an accident. Meanwhile, along this strange route, communications of all kinds were shut down. Not all at once, but in sequence.

Let us assume that the pilot and co-pilot are part of this operation. Let us also assume that the two that got aboard with false passports are also in on it. That gives us four people.If they were armed four would be sufficient to take over the plane. As this seems to be well planned there may be more.

Next we have the question of arms. It is my understanding that security in Malaysia is not up to western standards. I think it is reasonable to believe that crew members could smuggle guns on board. Beyond that five passengers checked in for the flight. Their baggage was loaded on the plane. When these five did not show up to board, their baggage was unloaded. I think it is possible that weapons could have been in that baggage, then removed and hidden on the plane before take off.

So we are left, in our speculation, with where did the plane go. The experts seem pretty much in agreement that the plane turned back to the west and headed out over the Indian Ocean. Some have posed the idea that the plane ended up in Pakistan. That is a long flight and the plane would have ended up in the control of the ISI. That just doesn't seem practical to me, although many knowledgeable people believe this and there may be some evidence being kept secret.

Now, if the plane had gone below radar level when over the Indian Ocean and turned back to the southeast they would be heading for Indonesia, the largest Muslim country in the world. Now if they found an isolated airport in Indonesia where they could land and hide this plane for future use, the flight would be short and the solution would be practical.

Are there any such airports? It took me less than five minutes to find one in Northern Sumatra, outside a town named Sibolga. The town is isolated and the runway seems very long. I'm sure this would fit the bill. Something along these lines would be my best guess.

This, of course, is just a mental exercise. I started from the point of believing that some form of terrorism is at the heart of this whole thing and this seems to be where most thinking is leading. From there I just extrapolated what little we know with what I would do if I were charged with planning something of this scale. If it is extremists, we know this is within their capacity. While speculation is interesting, only time will supply the truth. But if terrorists have taken this plane in tact, they will use it. And for no good.

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