Chaos Theory For The Rest Of Us

Last night I started to write a piece for this blog. Two paragraphs in, I could see it was going no where. So I started over. I got the same results. I tried a third shot and still couldn't get anyplace. At that point I gave it up as a bad night. My mind was in chaos. I couldn't get my thoughts to align into something coherent.  I watched "Justified" and went to bed.

I woke up in the middle of the night realizing that it wasn't my thoughts that were in chaos. The world is in chaos. There were so many things happening all at once, I was having a problem organizing my thoughts. I think they call that lack of focus. 

We have that plump little twerp in North Korea threatening nuclear war, saying he will turn Washington D.C. into a sea of fire. Meanwhile, the Pacific Fleet Commander, Admiral Samuel Locklear III is claiming our greatest military threat is climate change. Admiral, it is time for a career change. Maybe Greenpeace is hiring. They have ships.

Meanwhile, back on the home front, Barack Obama, the man that has spent the past five years, by turns, castigating or ignoring the Republicans, has decided to be their best bud. He's taking them out to dine and having meetings. Has he suddenly realized what great guys the Republicans are? Probably not. While all this is going on his staff is announcing that he's just doing this for the press and no one should believe it.

The mayor of New York has appointed himself king of New York. If you want to live in the big apple, you better be ready for the worm. You are going to have to toe the line eat right. No big sugary drinks. What is next?  Outlaw pitchers of beer and extra large pizzas. No double pepperoni for you. It must be great to have all that power. What's the phrase? Napoleon Complex, I believe.

Iran, the people that are threatening to kill all Jews and destroy Israel, are looking to sue Hollywood over the movie Argo because it is "outside their cultural norms". See, they should have made a movie about stoning and beheading. That seems to be within those norms.

The government shut down parts of the National Park system and the White House for tours    because they can't find any waste spending in government to eliminate. But we're still giving billions of dollars that we're borrowing from China to countries that hate us. We're even supplying the Muslim Brotherhood with F-16s in Egypt.

We couldn't afford to protect the US Ambassador in Libya, so he and three other patriots died. But we can afford to buy the Department of Homeland Security 2,700 war wagons, billions of rounds of ammunition, and fully automatic weapons. What is that for?

The TSA takes barely trained "agents" that don't even need to be high school graduates and dresses them up like cops to the tune of fifty million dollars to boost morale.

Through all this we have fewer people in the workplace than we have had since 1983. The Government is taking more money from the American people than it ever has before and the Democrats are screaming they need more tax money. Chaos.

Thoughts on the Dow

The Dow is not the entire economy. In spite of all the joyful noises that I have been hearing from the Sunday talking heads, I suggest that you walk very very carefully if you are considering investments. Let us examine why the Dow flourishes. Interest rates are too low to bother with a savings account as a means of investing. The rest of the world is in more turmoil than the the United States. American companies are solid and sitting on a mountain of cash. These same companies have pared back their operations and are profitable. So where else are people going to put their money?

Now for the warnings. A few weeks ago, in another venue where I write a column, I commented on the Bernanke Bubble. For the record, I was there first with that sobriquet.  OK, Mr. Bernanke is keeping interest rates artificially low. If they should go up, the government is in very serious financial trouble because of the huge interest payments on borrowed money. Mr. Brenanke has inflated the money supply by printing, printing, printing. That money has gone into the banks. With interest rates low, they are not making loans. They are investing in equities. The least twitch downward and they are going to bail out as fast as they can move stock without starting a complete panic. Once again the small investor will lag behind and take a beating. That popping sound you hear is the Bernanke Bubble bursting.

There are other factors that make up the greater economy. The biggest one right now is employment. It was a big deal this weekend when they announced that unemployment is down to a miraculous seven point seven percent. Wow! Nirvana is at hand. Yes, that was sarcasm. They claim something like two hundred and thirty-nine thousand jobs created. Figures don't lie, but liars can figure. The economy lost around two hundred and ten thousand jobs. Net gain, twenty some thousand jobs. Over a hundred thousand people gave up looking for work. Ladies and gentlemen we are bouncing along the bottom of a muddy swamp of a jobs economy. There are fewer people employed in the United States than there have been since 1983. Hope and change. No. Hopeless change. 

People are buying new cars, right. Well yes. And that's good. But that is in comparison with three years ago. Not like back in the glory days. The housing market does seem to be improving. The one thing I fear there is that people are getting into houses that are too big and too expensive. Many years ago, when I was young, we looked to get into a small starter home. Now everyone wants to go right into a McMansion. I just hope people find it sustainable. One of the worst things that a family can face is losing their home.

I do not want to scare anyone. I just want everyone to understand that you do not always get the whole story. Look at the price of food. Look at the price of fuel. Double check all your investment ideas and talk everything out with your family. If in doubt get the opinions of people you trust. Especially the folks that you know that are less gullible in financial matters. Better to make a mistake toward the safe side than end up on that fast downhill slope.

Does History Repeat?

I was sitting quietly listening to the hum of my computer and watching the end of, I hope, the last snow storm of the year, and my mind wandered off to the history of England. I started thinking of Edward the First (Longshanks) and the resemblance to Barack Obama. I don't want to hear from you real history buffs that wish to invoke Edward the Second. We just won't go there. If Obama is Longshanks then Rand Paul must be Robert the Bruce. 

The all powerful King of England was not one to share. William Wallace fought him hard and true but Scotland was still under Longshanks thumb. Against his fathers wishes Robert the Bruce raised an Army. He went through years of hardship. He lost a wife and had his children imprisoned. But he believed.

He lost brothers. He lost life long friends. But he persevered. He persevered because above all things he loved Scotland. He outlived Edward the First and defeated Edward the Second. He freed his beloved Scotland from English rule.

Enter Rand Paul. The President has always had control of the bully pulpit. When he speaks, all must listen. There is no other voice so strong. Until last Wednesday night. A young and idealistic senator took to the Senate floor and presented the American citizens with a good old fashioned filibuster. He made his voice heard even above the bully pulpit. He even brought the liberal media to attention. And above all he brought an out of control Attorney General to heel. A good nights work by any standard.

While Rand Paul was in the Senate chamber, doing the heavy lifting, the old guard of the party were having a nice cozy dinner with the President. You know, the man that has been castigating and trying to humiliate them for the past four year. You know, the senior members of the party he was going to destroy. Sequester didn't go quite as planned so now Obama is the old Republicans best buddy. Sure, Charlie Brown, Lucy won't pull the football out this time.

It is time for the old moderate Republicans to admit they couldn't get it done. It is time for the young bulls to stand up and go for it. Lord knows they cant do worse. The ones I see on TV are smart, dedicated, vigorous, and love their country just as much as the old timers. Let's find out who will be our Robert the Bruce and win back our country.

The World is Not Zero Sum

Once again we travel back into the world of basic economics. As I have stated, I know that many of you that read my blog (thank you, by the way) understand economics. Unfortunately, there are too many that don't. Economics always makes sense, but it is not always obvious to the casual observer.

There seems to be two worlds in politics today. There is the real world in which most of us live. There is also the liberal ideologue world in which the President and his compatriots live.
In the President's world all things are "zero sum". If you get more successful, someone else must get poorer. If you benefit another loses. Life to them is a balance sheet where assets and liabilities must balance or something is very wrong.

This theory can be proven wrong empirically with no great effort. If it were so, the economy could never grow. But grow it does, when properly cared for. Therefore "zero sum" economics is a fallacy. But somehow it sticks like glue as part of the liberal ideology. They lay claim to an over weaning sense of fairness. As long as they get theirs first, they worry about the little people. They want to make sure no one gets too much, so no one has to little.

Isn't it wonderful that these brilliant intellectuals are willing to look out for us. Like Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, our President, the Clintons. All those kind folk that got rich or richer milking the public cow. I think most people would just like to have these proprietors of the Nanny state off our back. Stop spending our money for their social experiments. Stop trying to control everything and let us live our lives.

The real world is not "zero sum". Ronald Reagan said it best when he said, "A rising tide raises all boats". Success breeds success, which breeds even more success. Then if we can keep enough of our hard earned money to invest it, the economy blossoms and flourishes. Opportunity abounds for all that want to take advantage of it.

It wasn't that many years ago when the unemployment rate was down under five percent. The only people that weren't working were those that didn't wish to. Now the nominal unemployment rate has been hovering around eight percent for five years. The real rate is up over fourteen percent. These numbers show no hope of immediate change and may get worse. 

They will never change as long as Obama continues with his tax, spend, and regulate philosophy. We can flourish again but huge changes must be made. The sooner the better. The longer this goes on, the longer the healing process. 

You Are Never Defenseless

I would rather not feel obliged to write this essay. But a young woman who was raped was demeaned and degraded by a know-it-all politician,  a woman who actually knew nothing about the circumstances, on TV. She was trying to explain that a concealed carry permit would have allowed her to protect herself with a gun. She was ripped by the liberal gun hater that was not there, but thought she still knew best.

This is for all women. You don't need a gun to defend yourself. In cities where women are most in danger, it is often impossible to get a CCP or even a gun. So, what are the alternatives. Your best alternative is a knife. Not just any knife. You must keep it legal. A folding knife with a blade less than three inches will cover that. No switch blades allowed. The cheap ones are useless, and they are all illegal except for law enforcement and military. It must open with one hand and lock open. Usually by means of a stud mounted on the blade that you can move with your thumb. It does not have to be super expensive but must be good quality. I can recommend the Gerber Applegate Fairbairn Mini-Covert Fast as a good example. I own one. It is flat and light. Both the blade and grip are black, so it is inconspicuous.  It holds an edge and is easy to use.

If you carry a knife don't just drop it in your pocket or purse and forget it. Make sure that you can grab it in an instant. Especially in the dark. Practice opening it so that it becomes second nature. If you are in questionable circumstances have it in your hand. Open! Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it. Never, ever, threaten with it. If you are in danger use it. Without thought, without remorse, without hesitation. It may save your life. In my humble opinion, up close and personal, a knife is better than a gun. If it is difficult to open get someone that knows knives to adjust it for you. If you don't know how to sharpen it, have that same person show you.

So, if you are one of those folks that doesn't recognize good advice and don't think they need a weapon, what then. Car keys can be effective. Hold them tightly in your hand with the longest key protruding through your fingers. If attacked go for the eyes. Don't hesitate. It may save your life. Never hesitate when defending yourself. Revert to that lizard brain and become an animal. Use any thing you have, including your teeth. Bite hard and rip. Clamp on as hard as you can and use your muscles and you weight to do all the damage you can. Better your attacker in the hospital than you.

I used to do a lot of flying. Of course you weren't allowed to have weapons on a plane. I was never on a plane without weapons. Take a look at a Cross pen and pencil set. The original Cross Pens. They are metal. Shaped like a nail and very strong. Fold a handkerchief into a pad. Put that in the palm of your hand to cushion the end of the pen. Then let it stick out between you fingers. You can do a lot of damage to an attacker.

I was getting on a plane coming home from Ireland one time. There was a young woman ahead of me in line who had a rather intriguing way of holding her hair in place. She had two, what looked like fat wooden knitting needles about eight inches long crossed through a bun. I kept an eye on her all the flight. I think she was someone that felt a need to carry weapons that didn't look like weapons. Those big fat needles were good personal protection.

There are many other things that can be used as weapons in a pinch. For instance the edge of a credit card can cut like a razor if you know how. Back in the old days, women carried hat pins. Most young women in that era thought of their hatpin as their back up weapon. If you don't know what a hat pin is, Google it. But, always, if it is you or them, make sure it is them. Never, ever be a victim. Never, ever let some one take control of your body.

My final point, unless you are ripping some creeps throat out with your teeth, scream. Long and loud. But always attack. Take away the initiative. I don't know if this will help anyone. I hope it does. If anyone reads this and wants to reprint it in their own blog or newsletter, please feel free. I have daughters so I worry as do all parents. Stay safe.

Straw Man vs. Crisis

The title of this blog does is not an advertisement for the next pay TV wrestling match. It is a description of the Obama administration's management style. Some might say that I have been pretty hard on the President lately in my writings. My answer to that is not just yes, it is hell yes! He deserves it. The last two weeks of Armageddon laden speeches prove the has no moral compass, just a lust for power and control.

I don't know if anyone has kept track of the number of crises over the past four years. If I had any premonition of how many there would be, I would have made the effort. If someone with access to a newspaper's "morgue" ever counts them up, I would love to know. Even better, I would really love to have a list. It would have to be a conservative paper. The more liberal papers would leave half of them out.

Many of these crises have been created, like the fiscal cliff and sequester. Some have been administration screw ups like "Fast and Furious" and Benghazi. Some have been nature at work like hurricane Sandy. Some have been just plain tragic like Aurora and Sandy Hook.

But the universal feature of all of these crises is the administration's efforts to use them to advantage. They do far and away the best with the crises that they have either created themselves or added to the process through intransigence or other means. Their main tool for this is Harry Reid. He is perfectly willing to stand up before man and his maker and block any hope for a negotiated settlement on any question. He just gets a sour look on his face and blames anyone that doesn't have a D after their name. I think he practices that sour look before a mirror.

When their crisis hits the news,  they have their straw man all set up and waiting in the wings to be trotted out on stage. These straw men are so pitiful that any person with a heart would want to protect them. One is named "Old People Being Thrown Off A Cliff". Another is named "Poor Little Children Going Without A Lunch". One of their favorites is "Teachers Getting Pink Slips". I am sure you can come up with many more. Frankly, some of them have been used so often that they are getting a little old and tattered.

But this tactic has worked well for the President. It gives cover to his "my way or the highway" attitude. In spite of the fact that he has been a terrible custodian of our country, many people still like him. Polls show that people think the country's going in the wrong direction. But many people haven't or won't realize that the responsibility for that rests squarely on the shoulders of Barack Obama.

Waste Not, Want Not

I have kept away from all the sequester hullabaloo that has been going on. There was plenty of ink, both real and virtual, being used up on the subject and I hate to be just another face in the crowd.  So I have stayed away. But I can resist no longer.

I must assume that anyone that finds their way here knows that there is no cut in spending. The only cut is a 2.3 percent cut in the increase in spending over the next year. In other words, nothing really needs to change. Government just needs to grow 2.3 percent less than they planned.

Then, of course, Obama and his minions trot out the politics of fear. Scare the elderly. Scare the single moms. Scare the poor. They are the first people he will be forced to rip money away from if he does not get his way. Bull!!! He is pathetic. He knows better. But where better to be a bully than in the bully pulpit. After this performance, Mr. Obama has no right to expect the respect of any American citizen.

Even worse, the Democrat members of Congress that are supposed represent, directly, the people that sent them to Washington have stood mute if not been part of the President's active support. Every one of them should be sent home at their next run for office. They are the definition of spineless.

I have been watching the news on TV and I have seen interview after interview with Washington insiders pointing out a myriad of failed, useless, wasteful, and duplicated programs, that, if eliminated, would go far beyond that meager 2.3 percent cut. It would actually be the start for getting a grip on the over spending that is ruining our country.

The President acts like that small amount of money is going to stop government in it's tracks. But don't forget where that money comes from. It comes from our pockets. So the government can't possibly survive with a little smaller raise but your family is supposed to survive on a decrease in income to finance Obama's spending habits.

Take away his credit card. He gets far to much as it is. The House of Representatives can do that. They hold the purse strings. They need to put the President in a twelve step program for shop-a-holics.